Choosing which Canadian city to enter next: a scorecard for HVAC owners

The eight factors

Each factor gets a score from 1 to 5, and a weight that reflects how much it matters to your company. Here is what each one measures.

1. Reachable households

Occupied homes inside the service area you could realistically cover in year one, from the 2021 Census. Not population, and not the whole metro.

2. Fuel mix fit

How well the city's heating mix matches what your team is good at selling and installing. A gas-furnace specialist scores high in Alberta, where about 76% of households heated mainly with natural gas in 2023 according to Statistics Canada, and lower in Quebec, where electricity was the main heating energy for about 70%.

3. Competition

How crowded the map results and paid ads are for your core services. Search the main terms from inside the city and count the established companies with deep review histories. More established competitors means a slower climb.

4. Drive time

How long it takes your techs to reach the core of the new service area, and to move around within it. Long drives cut into billable hours and make emergency work hard to win.

5. Cost of attention

How expensive it will be to buy calls. Competitive metros usually have higher costs per click for HVAC searches. You can estimate this from Google's keyword planning tools before you commit.

6. Regulatory steps

How many new steps your team faces: provincial gas or refrigeration licensing, trade certification, workers' compensation registration and business registration. Staying in your home province scores highest. Our areas pages link to the regulators in each jurisdiction.

7. Language requirements

Whether marketing must be produced in another language. In Quebec, the OQLF explains that French must be clearly predominant in commercial advertising and that customer-facing websites must be available in French. In Nunavut, the Inuit Language Protection Act requires Inuktut on public signs and commercial advertising. Plan and budget for this, rather than treating it as an afterthought.

8. Seasonal timing

How the city's heating and cooling seasons line up with your current market. If both peak at the same time, your team's capacity is stretched just when the new branch needs it. A coastal market with a milder winter and an inland market with a long, cold one can balance each other.

A worked comparison

Here is the scorecard applied to three large cities, from the point of view of a hypothetical gas-furnace company based in southern Ontario. The census and fuel numbers are real; the scores and weights are illustrative judgments you would replace with your own.

Background data:

• Calgary: 1,306,784 people in the city in 2021 (Statistics Canada). Alberta: about 76% gas, 14% electric heating.
• Winnipeg: 749,607 people and 300,431 occupied private dwellings in 2021 (Statistics Canada). Manitoba: about 52% gas, 33% electric.
• Ottawa: 1,017,449 people and 407,250 occupied private dwellings in 2021 (Census Profile). Ontario: about 58% gas, 18% electric.

In this example Ottawa comes out ahead, mostly because the company stays inside Ontario and avoids a second set of provincial licensing steps, and because a staffed branch is within reach of its existing operations. Ottawa scores a 4 rather than a 5 on language because many customers there expect bilingual service, even though French isn't a legal requirement as it is in Quebec. Calgary has the strongest fuel fit and more households but loses points on distance and regulatory steps. Change the weights and the answer can change: a company that already holds Alberta tickets, or plans a fully staffed branch, would score Calgary differently.

How to fill in each score honestly

• Use the same service-area rule for every city. If you count only districts within 30 minutes for one city, do the same for the others.
• Search from inside the city. Map results depend on location; searches run from your home market won't show the real competition.
• Score the regulatory side with the regulator, not with assumptions. Call the provincial body and ask what your team would need.
• Write down why you gave each score. Six months later, the reasons matter more than the numbers.
• Have a second person score independently. Disagreements point to the factors you understand least.

Turning the score into a decision

The top-scoring city goes forward to full market sizing; the others stay on the list. The scorecard narrows the field. The market sizing method then tests whether the leading city can pay back the launch in a time your cash can support. If it can't, move to the second city rather than forcing the first.

Once the city is chosen, the launch sequence sets the order of work for the first 120 days. If you'd like the comparison built for you, the market sizing service includes up to three cities side by side.

Common mistakes when choosing a city

• Following a competitor. Their success there tells you the market exists, and also that it now has one more strong player.
• Following a single employee. A tech who wants to move is a great asset for a launch, but not a reason on its own to choose the city.
• Ignoring the second province's paperwork. Licensing and registration can take longer than building the website.
• Weighting everything equally. Some factors matter far more to your business than others. Decide which before scoring.
• Scoring once. Rescore every year. Fuel mixes shift, programs change and competitors come and go.

The areas hub gives a starting point for each province and territory, including the main metros and the regulators to contact.