Market sizing tells you whether a new city can realistically pay back what it costs to launch there. We build a written estimate from public census and heating-fuel data, combine it with your own business numbers, and turn it into a launch plan with a break-even month. Every input is listed and sourced, so you, your partners or your bank can challenge any line.
What the sizing actually measures
It measures the replacement and service work a newcomer could plausibly win, not the size of the whole industry. The total HVAC spend in a metro is a big, flattering number that tells you very little. What matters is the slice you can reach in the first year or two, given your service area, your prices and the competition already there.
The sheet works through five layers:
- Households in the target area. Occupied private dwellings from the 2021 Census, for the city or for the specific municipalities you could serve within a reasonable drive.
- Heating-fuel mix. The share of households heating mainly with natural gas, electricity, oil or other fuels, from Statistics Canada Table 38-10-0286-01. This decides whether you are mostly selling furnaces, boilers, heat pumps or conversions.
- Replacement assumption. Your view of how often systems in that mix are replaced. We show the result at three rates so you can see how sensitive it is.
- Achievable share. What portion a new entrant could win in years one and two. We set it conservatively and explain why.
- Your economics. Average ticket, gross margin, closing rate on booked appointments and your expected cost per booked call.
A worked example you can rerun
Take a hypothetical service area with 120,000 occupied dwellings in a province where 75% of households heat mainly with natural gas. That's 90,000 gas-heated homes.
| Replacement assumption | Replacements per year | 1% newcomer share | Revenue at $8,500 average |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 in 15 per year | 6,000 | 60 jobs | $510,000 |
| 1 in 18 per year | 5,000 | 50 jobs | $425,000 |
| 1 in 22 per year | about 4,090 | about 41 jobs | about $348,000 |
Now add your cost to win those jobs. If a booked replacement appointment costs you $350 in marketing and you close 40% of them, each sold job carries $875 of acquisition cost. At 50 jobs, that is $43,750 for the year, before the fixed costs of a van, a technician and any location. The sheet then adds maintenance and service revenue, which is often where a new branch earns its keep, and calculates the month in which cumulative gross margin overtakes cumulative launch cost.
The market sizing guide explains each layer in more depth if you want to try it yourself first.
What's included
- A sizing sheet for one city (or a side-by-side for up to three), with every source linked and dated
- A service-area map recommendation: which municipalities or districts to serve first, based on drive time and housing type
- A competitor scan of the map results and paid ads for your main services in that city
- A budget plan under three scenarios (cautious, planned, aggressive) with a break-even month for each
- A launch order for the website, Google Business Profile, ads and reviews, linked to our launch sequence
- A list of the provincial regulators and certification bodies to contact, linked from our areas pages, without compliance advice
Timeline and how results are measured
Most sizing projects take two to three weeks. Week one is your numbers and the service-area definition. Week two is the data work and the competitor scan. Week three is the written plan and a call to walk through it.
The deliverable is judged by one thing: whether it lets you make the decision. After launch, we track the plan against reality each month: booked calls, cost per booked call, close rate and revenue per job compared with the plan's assumptions. When reality differs, we update the sheet rather than defend it.
Mistakes to avoid when sizing a city
- Using national numbers. The fuel mix varies enormously by province. Quebec heats mostly with electricity; the Prairies mostly with gas. A national average will mislead you everywhere.
- Counting the whole metro. If your techs can't reach the far suburbs in a reasonable time, those households aren't in your market yet.
- Forgetting the ramp. Year-one share is lower than year-three share. Plan the cash for the gap.
- Ignoring licensing lead time. Getting your team properly certified in a new province can take longer than building a website. Check with the regulator early.
- Treating rebates as permanent. Programs open and close often. A plan that only works with a specific rebate is fragile.
Ready to test a city? See pricing or call, text or email with the city name and your average replacement ticket.
Frequently asked questions
Where do the household and fuel numbers come from?
Household counts come from the 2021 Census of Population, and heating-fuel shares come from Statistics Canada's Households and the Environment Survey for reference year 2023. Both are cited in the sizing sheet so you can check them yourself.
Why don't you just tell me the market is worth a certain amount?
Because no public source tells you how many furnaces, boilers or heat pumps a specific city replaces each year. Anyone who quotes a precise market value is hiding an assumption. We show the assumptions openly, so you can test the ones your decision depends on.
How long does the sizing take?
Usually two to three weeks from the day we receive your business numbers. Comparing two or three cities takes a little longer, because each one needs its own service-area and competitor review.
What if the answer is no?
Then the plan says so and explains why, along with what would need to change, such as a higher ticket, a different service mix or a smaller first service area. Sometimes a nearer, smaller market turns out to be the better first step than the big city you started with.